Defiance of Fall

As often as I fall—
still I will not let myself lie
silent on the floor,
like leaves journeying groundward
in the crisp days of fall,
ready to mold, blacken, decay
through winter—
returning to earth.

Perhaps—tomorrow.
Perhaps—another day,
when my jar of breaths
runs empty—
but not today.

Confronting the Left Tail of Frequency Distributions in Life

 

Things fall apart. Not because they are flawed, but because they exist

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

Summary: When a wine cooler broke unexpectedly, it became a lens through which to reflect on the impermanence of all things. It was a reminder that from appliances to human existence, life expectancy follows probabilistic curves, and we do not quite know when something will stop functioning. This essay explores the emotional asymmetry we encounter when luck fails us, and we find ourselves holding a card drawn from the left tail of the distribution.

The Universe Doesn’t Owe Us Durability

The universe is ruled by impermanence. Everything is in flux. From galaxies down to the incessant ticking of kitchen clocks, all things are in motion — changing, evolving, decaying, dying. The stars are subject to this law: born from the gravitational collapse of gas clouds, they blaze with nuclear fire for millions or billions of years, fighting the very force that gave them birth — gravity, until the fuel of their alchemy runs dry. Then, surrendering to gravity once again, they collapse into white dwarfs, or neutron stars, or black holes. That which begins must inevitably end.

So too with us. We are born, pass through childhood, climb into the vigor of youth, and, if fortune favors us, step slowly into old age. Somewhere along that arc, we sometimes sense ephemeral moments of connection to others, to meaning, to the vastness of the universe. We strive to feel content, to feel aligned, even as we sense the impermanence that cradles all we know. And yet, despite this deep and constant rhythm of change, and us being aware of it, we are often startled when something breaks.

Take, for instance, our wine cooler. It stopped working the other week — eighteen months after we bought it. A trivial event, perhaps. An appliance gone dead. One day it was bound to happen. But my reaction wasn’t trivial. Irrationally, I felt betrayed. A small current of fury and disappointment welled up. For no good reason, I was convinced: this thing had broken too soon. It broke before I got my money’s worth.

Why the feeling? I don’t know the statistical distribution of lifespans for the brand of wine cooler we chose. I never researched the failure rates (such statistics are hard to come by in the first place) or asked how many months of faithful service one could reasonably expect. Yet I carried inside me an assumption that my experience fell on the left tail of the distribution.

When Life Falls on the Left Tail

In statistics, when we speak of the “left tail” of a distribution (for example normal or Gaussian) distribution, we refer to those rare events that fall well below the average. If the average lifespan of a wine cooler is, say, five years, then an eighteen-month failure would land far to the left of the bell curve — an unfortunate outlier; a black swan. And when we end up in the left tail of an experience, whether it’s an appliance breaking, or a car accident, or a bad medical diagnosis, we often feel personally slighted. Cheated, even. Not just by the manufacturer, or the system, but by luck itself. The question we inevitably ask, why us?

Strangely, this asymmetry doesn’t cut both ways. When things go unexpectedly well — when the car runs smoothly for 20 years, or we enjoy unusually robust health deep into our 90s — we seldom feel the same intensity of emotion. There may be gratitude, yes, but rarely outrage at the universe’s unfair generosity. The emotional tilt is clear: the left tail stings, while the right tail quietly slips by, often unremarked.

This asymmetry in feeling may stem from how we view fairness, especially where money is involved. Money, after all, is hard-won. It represents time, effort, maybe sacrifice (for most of us, something spent here must be balanced by pinching there). When we spend it, particularly on something tangible, a refrigerator, a wine cooler, we subconsciously expect a certain return. Not just utility, but durability. When the object fails us “too soon,” it isn’t just an inconvenience; it feels like a violation of that unspoken contract with the universe.

What is “Okay”?

But here’s the strange thing: I don’t even know what “ok” would have been. Would I have felt satisfied if the cooler had lasted three years? Five? I have no internal compass for this. All I know is that eighteen months wasn’t enough. Period. And that vague dissatisfaction, I suspect, is partly because I had to pay money to replace it. Impermanence, when it comes with a price tag, seems like a double whammy.

Still, I forget — again and again — that things break. That everything breaks. The material world is governed by entropy. Disorder accumulates. Springs wear out, compressors stall, plastics crack. And yet, every time something I own becomes a ghost, I am caught off guard. We know that nothing lasts forever, but somewhere deep within, we act as if the things we buy have a moral obligation to do so.

Confronting the Truth That Things Break

Maybe that is why the cooler’s death irritated me so much — it forced me to confront a universal truth. One that applies not just to wine coolers, but to friendships, careers, our own bodies. Things fall apart. Not because they are flawed, but because they exist. Perhaps the greater surprise would be if they didn’t.

I find myself wishing that each product came with a little probability distribution chart printed on its packaging. Expected lifespan: mean = 4.2 years, σ = 1.1 years. 10% chance of failure within 2 years. If we knew the PDF — the probability density function — of an item’s life expectancy, maybe we could calibrate our expectations better. Then when something failed early, we’d know: this was a one-in-ten-year event. Not betrayal. Just bad luck. But such a world is not going to exist.

But even if that information was available, would it truly help? Or would we still feel bruised when randomness worked against us?

This all seems absurdly philosophical for a malfunctioning appliance. But perhaps small instances like that are an invitation to reflect. Each break, each crack in the surface of space and time, reminds us that everything we touch, everything we use is temporary. The lesson is to recognize the fragility and value of things while they still work.

A New Cooler a New Mindset

So, the wine cooler was gone. We bought a new one. This time, I’m trying something different: If it serves us for years, we’ll quietly appreciate the stretch of good luck. And if it breaks early, perhaps I’ll remember this moment, and say: Ah. This is just the left tail. Perhaps on average, event falling on left and right tails average out (if they were random, they would).

Life, too, has its own distribution. Some of us will experience long spans of health, wealth, and companionship. Others will meet misfortunes early. Most will fall somewhere in the wide middle. But wherever we land, it helps to remember that the curve is impersonal. The universe isn’t singling us out. The universe is not vindictive. It is simply unfolding without an end in mind.

And maybe, just maybe, being aware of this can make us a little more generous — with our expectations, our money, and with our sentiments towards broken machines.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

Letters from the Retirement Community (3): The Plateau and the Paddle

 

Like the pendulum, our growth in skill slows as we ascend toward mastery, and time begins to feel like it’s working against us.

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

Summary: A personal reflection on learning Pickleball in a retirement community becomes an exploration of skill development, aging, and the pursuit of mastery. Drawing on metaphors from chaos theory, physics, and evolution, the essay contemplates progress, plateaus, and the quiet grace of striving without obsession.

When we moved to the retirement community, a small group of us — new neighbors settling in their next phase of life — found a shared goal in a game with a curious name: Pickleball. None of us had played it before, but we were drawn in by its easier learning curve and the cheerful cadence of the plastic ball echoing across the courts each morning in the neighborhood. With cautious enthusiasm and borrowed paddles, we began to get our feet wet.

In those early weeks, there was a quiet cohesion among us beginners; a camaraderie born of shared inexperience. Like an ensemble of weather model forecasts started from nearly identical initial conditions, our starting skill levels were roughly the same; differences between us seemed minor — barely worth noting. But as time passed and we each put in hours on the court, something familiar yet subtle began to happen. Our trajectories diverged.

A few of us dropped out, either from injury, disinterest, or other priorities. Some remained in a holding pattern — playing casually, enjoying the social aspect more than focusing on improving the game. But a handful of us got better. Our serves sharpened. Our footwork improved. Our understanding of angles, strategy, and shot selection deepened. What had started as a unified group began, like any chaotic system evolving over time, to fragment into individuals taking different paths. The coherence that bound us early on slowly broke apart, much like an ensemble of forecasts growing less correlated with each hour of lead time.

My own journey followed a familiar arc. At first, every session brought noticeable progress — better timing, fewer unforced errors, growing confidence in volleys and initial forays into dinks. The game seemed to open up, to welcome us in. There’s a pleasure in those early days of learning, when gains come easily and encouragement flows from tangible improvement. But then came the plateau.

No longer did another hour of playing brought noticeable change. Progress became harder to measure, and the law of diminishing returns kicked in. Progress, that once required simple effort now demanded intention, focus, and a kind of mental endurance. I found myself needing to exert more effort for smaller gains. The curve of improvement bent gently toward flatness like the trajectory of a stone thrown up in the sky.

This, I realized, is the familiar territory mapped by the power law of practice.

The concept is simple but powerful: the time it takes to improve increases disproportionately the further along you are in your skill level. Early progress is exponential; later progress is logarithmic. To halve your errors might take a week at first. To halve them again could take a month. Then a year. And so on. It’s a law that governs not just games like Pickleball, but pursuits as varied as piano playing, chess, language acquisition, and progress made by elite athletics.

Consider the practice regimen of top athletes. Serena Williams, at her peak, would spend five to six hours a day on the court, followed by strength training, recovery, and mental conditioning. Novak Djokovic speaks often of the minutiae — how the last 1% of improvement requires almost obsessive attention to diet, rest, biomechanics. Simone Biles trains six days a week for hours a day, perfecting routines that last less than two minutes. These athletes are no longer learning the game — they are refining movements to microscopic precision. The returns are small, but the costs are immense. And yet, this is the price of excellence.

The shape of this curve reminded me of another image: the swing of a pendulum. At its lowest point, velocity is greatest — this is the beginner’s rush, the stage of maximum progress. But as the pendulum climbs, it slows. At the apex, its motion ceases momentarily before gravity reclaims it. Like the pendulum, our growth in skill slows as we ascend toward mastery, and time begins to feel like it’s working against us. Progress requires more and more energy, for less and less of a return.

We also see a parallel in evolution’s long, winding arms race. Take the cheetah and the gazelle — predator and prey in a relentless contest of speed trying to outrun each other. The cheetah evolves to run faster, more agile. In response, the gazelle becomes faster too. There’s a reciprocal escalation. But there is a ceiling. Muscles generate heat. Metabolism needs fuel. Past a point, increasing speed demands more energy than the organism can afford. There is an asymptote. Further gains become biologically prohibitive. The same logic applies to brain size in primates. Our brains are costly organs, consuming around 20% of our body’s energy. There is a tradeoff — between cognitive effort and metabolism, between complexity (requiring more energy) and sustainability. Evolution, like practicing Pickleball, meets its limits.

I sometimes wonder whether my own Pickleball journey has reached its own kind of asymptote. Not from lack of will, but from the simple calculus of life. I am not 25. I do not want to spend five hours a day on the court. There are other demands — writing, maintaining social connections in the community we have moved in, keeping up with the basic logistics of life like finances. And so, though I might want to improve, I must also recognize that my trajectory of my improvement in the game of Pickleball is reaching natural limits.

Yet, this is not a lament. There is something beautiful in acknowledging limits. In fact, there is freedom in it. I may never master the third shot drop or dominate in tournaments. But I can still find joy in the bounce of the ball, the rhythm of play, the sunlight casting shadows across the court. I can still be a student of the game. And maybe, like the pendulum, my swing may slow — but it may not stop. I will return again and again, in the quiet cycle of practice and participation.

So how far will I get in my improvement? I am already far better than I was. I will still feel the slow rhythm of growth and savor the moment when the paddle strikes the sweet spot. I will relish the hints of my own progress — even if invisible to others.

There is wisdom in the plateau too. A kind of stillness. A sense that I am capable enough to reach where I am and even if limited amount of further trying does not result in quantum leaps, it is ok.

And so, I’ll keep playing. Not to master the game, but to befriend it. Not to beat others, but to keep company with my own striving, however slow. In that striving, perhaps, lies the real win in life.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

We Sat in the Love Seat

The van pulled over at noon.

A woman in the driver’s seat—
her face a creased, from pulling some miles—
opened the van, wrestled the furniture
from its dark belly.

Her arms were thin,
struggling to hold the weight
of our needs—and our wants.

She shifted the boxes to a dolly,
rolled it over the pavement—
then lifted them again,
left them at our door.

We stood there, thinking—
that this delivery
is the gateway to something bigger…
that our rooms, our moments, our love
might finally find their grace;
they would no longer dangle
from the precipice—
always threatening to come undone.

We got to the task
of assembling pieces together,
and we thought—
it would be easy.

Six hours passed.
It turned out to be
much harder than we had imagined—
screws resisting,
panels refusing to fit in slots,
often requiring the soft persuasion of a mallet
(which the manual had failed
to mention).

As the daylight drained,
we finally sat on what we had assembled—
our arms aching, minds wondering:
is this really the magic to cure
what ails us?

Lost in our thoughts—
we sat huddled
in the love seat together.