In life, as in a game of poker, the cards are dealt randomly, but how you play them is not random — Unknown
Summary: Imagine a world devoid of randomness, where the future holds no uncertainties. Would such a place be monotonous and dull? Without randomness and with a complete understanding of causality, would we have missed the opportunity to build the rich superstructures of religious and philosophical traditions?
I get fooled by a 30% chance for rain
As I walk home during my evening stroll, I nervously eye the ominous dark clouds gathering in the sky. The morning forecast had predicted a 30% chance of rain after 3 pm, but I wasn’t sure how to interpret that number and decide whether to bring an umbrella.
I don’t quite know at what probability threshold to carry an umbrella. Or perhaps, at the risk of looking like an overcautious old fart, I should just carry an umbrella as a mitigation strategy and forget about looking up at the chance of rain all together. That would be a workable strategy to circumvent future outcomes that are probabilistic. This strategy, however, is not always feasible, for you see, carrying an umbrella (if you have one), does not cost anything extra. Bur mitigating strategies and accompanying actions can cost an arm and a leg.
Randomness Is Prevalent
In the afternoon, whether it will rain or not is uncertain because its occurrence depends on numerous local and non-local factors in space and time, making it beyond comprehension. Given infinite resources, by tracking every butterfly’s wing flap and every molecule’s motion, we might narrow down the cone of future uncertainty. But is it worth the time and effort?
Without understanding the causality that takes water molecules from their morning meanderings in the air to coalescing into rain clouds by 4 pm over my head, it’s easier to lump the countless hidden factors shaping the future into a convenient concept called the Randomness.
All would be well if the afternoon rain was the only consequence of randomness, a minor hiccup, but the consequences of randomness do not stop there. Everything about the future is uncertain and, in one way or another, attributable to the complexity of invisible forces shaping outcomes that get lumped into the mysterious dark force of randomness.
Randomness Is Stress
The uncertainty about the future is not a good feeling to have. We are always trying to narrow the cone of uncertainty and wishing that we can have a peek into the future. Would it not be wonderful to know what the stock market was going to be one year from now? Knowing that single number be such a huge advantage for our well-being (of course, only if I am the privileged one and no one else knew about it).
Knowing the future, and thereby, minimizing the consequences of randomness has obvious evolutionary advantage to it. It is no wonder we are wired to favor certainty because is good for the notion of the survival of the fittest. Lack of uncertainty is good for keeping stress at bay.
But let us assume that humanity does get its desire. What would be counterfactual world without randomness be like?
A Counterfactual World Without Randomness
Imagine a world where randomness does not exist, where every event and outcome is predetermined by where you start from and a set of immutable laws that propagate them forward. In this counterfactual world, the future is mostly deterministic, and the concept of chance is nothing more than a relic of our imagination. Would such a world be boring and monochromatic, or would it be a realm of unparalleled clarity and understanding. Would it be enjoyable?
In a deterministic universe, every action and reaction follows a predictable path. The state of the universe at any given moment would be an inevitable result of its previous state, governed by unchanging laws of nature.
The Appeal of Clarity
One of the most compelling aspects of a deterministic world is the clarity it offers. Without randomness, the universe operates like a well-oiled machine, where every cog and wheel has a defined purpose and function. This predictability could lead to a deeper understanding of the natural world, as scientists and philosophers could trace every event back to its origin with precision. The principle of sufficient reason, famously articulated by Leibniz, would reign supreme: everything would have an explanation.
In such a world, the mysteries that currently baffle us — what is the chance we exist today, where are we going, what would be the moment of my death — could be unraveled with certainty. This clarity could foster a sense of security and confidence, knowing that the universe is not subject to the whims of chance. Before closing my eyes and calling it a day, I would know for certain that I will wake up tomorrow.
The Risk of Boredom and Monotony
However, the absence of randomness might also strip the world of its vibrancy. Randomness introduces variability and novelty, making life unpredictable and exciting. Without it, every event would be a foregone conclusion, potentially leading to a sense of monotony. The thrill of discovery, the excitement of the unknown, and the joy of serendipitous moments, the joy of occasionally drenched my summer rain, would be lost.
Moreover, human creativity and innovation often thrive on randomness. The unexpected connections and spontaneous ideas that drive artistic and scientific breakthroughs might be stifled in a deterministic world. The richness of human experience, characterized by its unpredictability and diversity, could be diminished.
So, what would we prefer? A state of clarity or a falling into the risk of boredom and monotony. Or perhaps, there is a sweet spot in between with just the right amount of randomness and uncertainty about the future that will dampen the stressful aspects of uncertainty while keeping the interesting parts.
Optimal Level of Randomness
Could there be just the right amount of randomness to keep the anticipation of future feeling us engaged but not too much to get us stressed. If would be like the notion of right amounts of spice in a dish or the pleasure of enjoying a balanced wine.
The balance between clarity and monotony in a deterministic world would, however, be deeply individualistic. Each person might experience and interpret this balance differently, shaped by their unique preferences, values, and outlook on life.
For some, the predictability and order of a deterministic universe could be a source of comfort and satisfaction. These individuals might find joy in the clarity and certainty that such a world offers, appreciating the ability to understand and anticipate every aspect of their existence. The absence of randomness could provide a sense of control and stability, aligning with their desire for a structured and comprehensible reality.
On the other hand, others might feel constrained by the lack of spontaneity and novelty. For these individuals, the excitement of the unknown and the thrill of unexpected discoveries are essential components of a fulfilling life. The predictability of a deterministic world could seem monotonous and stifling, depriving them of the serendipitous moments and creative sparks that make life vibrant and dynamic.
Ultimately, the perception of a world without randomness would vary from person to person. Some might embrace the clarity and order it brings, while others might yearn for the unpredictability and chaos that add color to their lives. This individualistic balance highlights the diverse ways in which people find meaning and satisfaction in their experiences, underscoring the rich tapestry of human existence.
How do you think you would perceive a deterministic world? Would you lean towards appreciating its clarity or the excitement of randomness?
For me, oh well. I would love to know where the S&P 500 will be a year from now, but I will not mind getting drenched in a summer deluge just because the forecast said 30% chance of rain and I decided not to being the umbrella. So much for wishful thinking though.
Ciao, and thanks for reading.
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