A possible hypothesis for why average IQ will decline.
Survival and reproduction are fundamental goals of natural selection. The better an individual is at surviving and reproducing, the greater the likelihood that their lineage will endure and thrive.
Traits enhancing survival and reproduction tend to be passed down through generations, ultimately dominating a population. Intelligence is one such trait.
A higher Intelligence Quotient (IQ), a measure of intelligence, provides an obvious advantage in evolution. Individuals with higher IQs can be hypothesized to have an edge in survival (and hence, reproduction), leading to the inheritance of this trait.
Evidence supports the heritability of IQ. Twin studies, comparing IQ similarities between identical and fraternal twins, consistently reveal higher correlations in identical twins, suggesting a genetic influence.
It is logical to hypothesize that, coupled with natural selection, the advantages of IQ contribute to a gradual increase in the average IQ of a population — a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect.
However, this upward trend in the average IQ may be hindered by factors that disrupt and override the natural selection process.
One factor is the choice of individuals with high IQ to prioritize career advancement over reproduction. As a consequence of this, decreases in reproduction rates are evident, especially in developed countries.
Another factor is technology interfering with natural selection.
Technology, by providing tools that augment our intellectual and physical abilities, can diminish the advantages of intelligence and physical fitness for survival. Access to technology, therefore, may also neutralize the advantage of higher IQ in terms of survival and reproduction.
The two factors — higher IQ to favor a decrease in reproduction and technology to diminish the requirements for intellectual and physical fitness — might lead to a decline in average IQ, as suggested by evidence indicating recent decades’ potential decrease in population IQ.
Come to think of it, similar arguments can be made for how average fitness may first rise and then decline with the evolution of civilization.
High IQ, by consciously limiting reproduction and by making technological advances possible, may be a self-limiting trait.
The prevalence of individuals engrossed in social media while commuting or waiting at airports might indicate a shift away from the significance of intelligence in evolution.
If this trend continues, our civilization may have reached the pinnacle of its IQ.
If so, best wishes to our future selves.
Ciao.
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