Brother in Arms

 

Just like a stone
that is thrown
against the attractive force of gravity
reaches the vertex,
and then,
starts to descend,
the attractive force of mortality
does the same to our life.

They – gravity and mortality -
are brother in arms.

God's Waiting Room

 

The sign said, “Turn Here for 55+ Active Adult Community.”
If we are diligent enough in the fine print it also said welcome to “God’s Waiting Room.”
The developers did not have to include that.
Wherever we are, we all live in God's waiting room.

Somewhere along the arc...

 

Hurled from the womb, kicking, screaming,
we soared up in the sky
oblivious of the law
of the gravitational pull

and of the
approaching vertex -
that fleeting moment
when ascent slows,
and stillness holds,
and descent begins.

Somewhere along the arc,
unnoticed,
we also grew old.

We are a paradox

Another day passed; nothing seemed to have changed in the universe.

The sun rose, punctual as ever, though perhaps a minute later than it did
yesterday.

The sky bore the same deep blues, the clouds thankfully subdued,
and yet beneath this serene facade, churned songs of different hues.

Within, the invisible hum of countless battles echoed:
Some cells, battered and weary, fell in silent surrender,
while others, newborn and bold, rushed forward to the front lines.

Fierce and unrelenting, the wars raged in unseen depths,
keeping the machinery of existence alive.

We are a paradox:
a facade of outward calm,
but held together,
by unseen chaos.

AI's Hunger for Energy: How Rising Energy Demands Could Reshape Our Future

 

Artificial intelligence may not consume food like humans, but its insatiable appetite for energy is a challenge we must address responsibly

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI: AI's Hunger for Energy

Summary: As AI technology advances, its escalating energy demands are beginning to resemble the sci-fi trope of civilizations expanding to fuel their growth. AI’s demand for energy is urging tech giants like Google and Microsoft to invest in nuclear energy to support their vast data networks. Alongside these technological advances will come significant ethical and environmental challenges.

The vision of an advanced civilization with a relentless hunger for energy, driven to expand beyond its limits to fuel its growth, is a familiar theme in science fiction. In many futuristic tales, civilizations become so reliant on energy-intensive technologies that their search for power sources drives them to conquer other worlds. Today, however, this sci-fi scenario doesn’t seem entirely far-fetched. The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), and the massive energy needs it brings, may soon push us to rethink our relationship with energy in profound ways.

AI’s hunger for power is very real. Demand for electricity has prompted some of the world’s largest technology companies to explore power solutions to meet their needs. This quest for energy could propel us into an era where cutting-edge energy resources are no longer just a convenience but a necessity for continuing the advancements we wish to pursue.

The AI Energy Appetite: More than Just a Data Center Issue

Artificial intelligence is a transformative technology, reshaping everything from medicine and finance to education and entertainment. However, it comes at a price — namely, the staggering amount of electricity required to train, run, and maintain AI systems. A simple natural language model, for instance, requires an enormous amount of computational power to train, consuming more energy in a few hours than the average household might use in several years.

This exponential demand is driven by the fact that AI systems thrive on data, and to create meaningful insights, they need to analyze colossal datasets, requiring processing and storage on an immense scale. Today’s data centers — massive, sprawling facilities housing thousands of computers — are responsible for providing the infrastructure for these operations. And as AI models, and their scope continue to grow, so does its demand for energy. With this spike in demand, AI’s need for power is fast becoming a key issue, prompting technology companies to explore more advanced energy options.

Big Tech Courts Nuclear Power

To address the rising energy needs of AI, tech giants are beginning to look beyond traditional energy sources like fossil fuels and renewable resources. While renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, have come a long way in efficiency and cost-effectiveness, they still have limitations. For one, they are subject to weather conditions and geographical constraints, making it difficult to guarantee a steady energy supply for data centers that require round-the-clock operation.

Enter nuclear power. Nuclear energy provides a consistent, reliable source of power. In recent years, big tech companies such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have all made significant investments or partnerships related to nuclear energy. For instance, Microsoft recently announced a partnership with a nuclear fusion company to meet its long-term energy needs. Google has also been exploring nuclear options, recognizing that nuclear energy’s low-carbon footprint and reliability make it an attractive option for its vast network of data centers.

The Environmental and Ethical Implications

With increased demand for power, there are also ethical and environmental considerations that cannot be ignored. Nuclear energy, while relatively clean in terms of carbon emissions, comes with its own set of environmental challenges, including the risks of radiation leaks and the problem of nuclear waste. Then there’s the issue of whether it’s ethical to dedicate such vast resources to powering AI and data centers when those resources could be allocated to other pressing global issues, such as healthcare, clean water access, or food security.

If AI continues to develop, it may not just be the algorithms and models that evolve, but our very approach to energy production and consumption may also see a paradigm shift.

Final Thoughts

While today’s AI developments are promising, they bring with them a need for power that is testing the limits of our current energy infrastructure. In an AI-powered world, energy may no longer be a silent, secondary consideration. It could become a central aspect of our society, influencing our environmental policies, economic priorities, and ethical decisions. Whether or not we turn to nuclear power — or even more futuristic energy solutions — remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: AI’s energy appetite is beginning to echo science fiction tales.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

Aging Together: A Journey of Friendship and Pickleball

 

Growing old together means you’ll always have someone to remind you where you left your glasses… because I’ll probably be sitting on them.

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI: Aging Together

Summary: In a retirement community, a group of us ‘aged people’ arrived around the same time, sharing the journey of settling in and embracing new activities like pickleball. Over time we will grow older together. Though we’re all beginners now, our skills and interests will mature differently, and our paths will diverge. Yet, our true connection lies in aging together. Slowly, our chats will turn from playful banter to comparing aches and pains of old bodies, eventually becoming watchers on the sidelines observe the new arrivals go through a similar drill.

Recently, moving into a retirement community marked the start of a new chapter for us. Although I’m still working, we made the transition for a couple of reasons: to settle into a place where we want to retire while we’re still active and capable of handling the challenges of a big move, and to escape the long, cold winters of our previous home.

We’re now settling in, and part of this process involves engaging in the variety of activities offered by our new community, a 55+ retirement community. While we do that, I’m starting to realize that, as I age, I’ll be sharing a unique journey with fellow retirees — especially those who, like us, arrived around the same time.

We’ve started to establish new routines and friendships, including our introduction to pickleball — a game that we newcomers are all learning to play. For now, we’re united by our inexperience and eagerness to try something new, making each misstep and missed shot part of the fun (and, occasionally, the cause of an audible curse).

As we get our feet wet together, I realize that, over time, some of us will progress faster than others, and our skill levels in pickleball will start to vary. Some will join more experienced players as they advance, others may be content staying where they are, and still others may decide it’s not their cup of tea and move on to try different activities.

But regardless of where our pickleball skills take us, one thing will remain constant: we will age together. Gradually, our conversations will shift from discussing games and learning new skills to comparing aches and pains, sharing doctor recommendations, and reflecting on changes we never anticipated. Over time, as we become less active players and more spectators, our courtside chats will evolve into quieter observations from the sidelines.

Our shared aging would be woven into the life of getting older in this community. None of us arrived here in our youth — we are all here precisely because of the stage of life we’re in — old. Our being here is contingent of being over 55 and we are required to provide evidence for it (e.g., the drivers license).

Our shared aging is part of the fabric of life in this community. None of us arrived here in our youth — we’re all here precisely because of the stage of life we’re in: older adulthood. Our residence here is contingent on being over 55, something we even had to verify (for example, with a driver’s license).

As us, the old people get older together, our days will be marked by shared experiences, and mutual support that the process of aging requires. In the end, this gradual, graceful aging will be our common bond, reminding us that while each of us may have our own aches and individual journeys, we are also on a journey together. Towards that, pickleball is just an excuse for greater adventures.

As we, the older generation, continue aging together, our days will be shaped by shared experiences and the mutual support that growing older requires. In the end, this gradual, graceful aging will be our common bond, reminding us that, while each of us has our own aches and individual journeys, we are also on a shared path. On that journey, pickleball is just the beginning of adventures yet to come.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

Balancing Novelty and Memory: Lessons from Larry

 

Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards — Søren Kierkegaard

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI: Balance

Summary: Without memory retention, everything is done the first time, and it could make life interesting. However, this state of being also brings forth a paradox of balancing novelty, memory, and identity. While novelty brings excitement and growth, memory provides stability and a sense of self. Without memory of our past, we would struggle to form deeper connections and an identity. This highlights the importance of balancing new experiences with memory and having a fulfilling life.

Meeting Larry

We finally took the leap and moved to a 55+ retirement community. There were several reasons behind our decision: a desire to escape extended winters and avoid being homebound for a good part of the year; a wish to settle down in a place where we might eventually retire while our bodies and minds are still functioning well; and the appeal of being in a setting that offers ample opportunities for social interactions.

So far, living in this community has been a pleasant experience. The little pond behind our home offers a blend of tranquility, and there are plenty of social activities to choose from. Being here also gave us the chance to meet a fellow resident, Larry. This is a little story about Larry and the life lessons be brought home.

We don’t have any background on Larry and only come across him during our walks. The curious thing about our encounters is that each time we meet, it’s a novelty for him. Perhaps due to the impairments of old age, Larry might be having trouble remembering. At the beginning of each meeting, we go over the same pleasantries again. This repetitive yet novel experience has led me to ponder a paradox: each day is a new experience for Larry, but at the same time, he lacks the continuity of time and the memories that define the self. Given that, what is the utility of novelty for him?

Memory and Who We are

Memory plays a crucial role in shaping our identity. It is through our recollections of the past that we build a sense of continuity and self-awareness. For Larry, however, each day is a blank slate. This raises an interesting question: Is the perpetual novelty of Larry’s experience beneficial, or is there a need for a balance between novelty and the retention of memory?

On the one hand, the novelty of each day for Larry can be seen as a positive aspect. Every interaction is fresh and untainted by the baggage of past experiences, allowing him to live in the moment. This can be particularly beneficial in a retirement community, where the focus is often on enjoying the present, making the most of each day, and trying to brush aside the angst of our finite existence.

However, the lack of memory retention also poses challenges. Memories provide a framework for understanding our place in the world and our relationships with others. Without a clear notion of the past, Larry might struggle to form deeper connections and maintain a coherent sense of self.

Is There an Optimal Place?

The paradox of Larry’s situation underscores a broader truth about life: the need for a balance between novelty and memory. Novelty brings excitement and a sense of discovery, which are essential for growth. It keeps life interesting, prevents stagnation, and makes us look forward to getting out of bed in the morning. On the other hand, memory provides stability and a sense of identity. It allows us to learn from our experiences and build meaningful relationships. However, the capacity of our brains is finite. In the end, we cannot carry everything from the past along. Some memories need to be let go to make room for new experiences.

While not remembering anything and allowing each day to be a novel experience in bad, being forever burdened by everything from the past is not good either.

As we age, this balance becomes particularly important. It allows us to have new experiences while selective retention of memories helps maintain a sense of continuity and identity. A well-lived life is an intricate optimization problem. All aspects of our well-being require balance and moderation — neither too little nor too much exercise is good; both overeating and undereating are harmful; and too much or too little sleep is detrimental.

On one of our upcoming walks, we’ll run into Larry again. Instead of the usual, “Long time, no see. How have you been?” we’ll simply say, “Nice to meet you,” giving Larry the pleasure of a fresh experience. It’s the least we can do.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

Eternal Bodies, Finite Minds, and the Notion of Reincarnation

 

I did not believe in reincarnation in my past life, and I still don’t — Woody Allen

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

Summary: Imagine a world where our bodies are immortal, but our brains have finite capacity. In this scenario, life would become a cycle of forgetting and re-learning, much like reincarnation but without the retention of past memories. With cognitive limits in place, perpetual rediscovery could ensure that life, despite its lack of temporal boundaries, remains dynamic and engaging rather than becoming a tale of boredom.

Immortality

It is the opposite of the finiteness of our existence — a finiteness that, once encountered and internalized, has the potential to shake our comfortable, often unexamined lives. The realization of our finiteness has led to many profound (and mundane) explorations and inventions throughout human history, including religion, various constructs of the afterlife, reincarnation, fortune telling, and dreams of finding the fountain of youth.

The notion of immortality in this discussion focuses on the physical body. It does not concern the continuation of our soul or self in any form; these concepts may simply be constructs to soften the harsh reality of our finiteness.

Can We Become Immortal?

The immortality of the physical self may not be such a far-fetched idea. With medical and technological advancements, most of our body parts might become replaceable. The possibility of 3D-printed body parts may not remain science fiction for much longer. Just as we walk into an auto parts store to buy a replacement for a worn-out windshield wiper, imagine one day walking into a human body shop, providing the required genetic information, and walking out with a new thumb to replace the one feeling twinges of arthritis.

There is, however, a part of our existence — the brain — that has unique limitations. Even if it could be considered physically immortal, its functional capacity has limits.

What About the Brain?

The brain is always working, constantly communicating with different parts of the body to keep us alive. It stores our memories, experiences, and everything we have learned. For humans, it is the seat of our consciousness. With its neurons and the connections between them, the brain is the organ that creates the self. Ultimately, however, the brain’s capacity for information is finite.

For all the intricate functions it performs, the brain has high energy requirements. This small, three-pound organ consumes 20% of the body’s energy. One could imagine that adding or augmenting the brain’s capacity and functionality would only increase its energy demands. Another unique aspect of the brain is that unlike other bodily organs, the brain — and what resides and occurs within it — uniquely defines who we are.

Following this chain of thought, a plausible scenario is that while the physical parts of the self could be immortal, the brain’s capacity and functions might remain limited.

A Counterfactual World

Let us indulge in imagining a world where our physical bodies are immortal, but our brains have finite capacity.

In such a world, our capacity to retain past experiences and memories would be limited. As we accumulate memories and knowledge, we would eventually reach a point where new information could only be retained at the expense of letting some go. This would lead to a cyclical pattern of learning and forgetting, somewhat akin to the notion of reincarnation. We live, accumulate memories that help define the self, die, and when we are reborn, nothing is remembered, and we start from scratch to build a new self.

The cycle of learning, forgetting, and relearning might seem tedious, but it has a silver lining. Even with immortality, we would not face eternal boredom or a lack of novelty. Despite the repetition, the human capacity for novelty and pleasure would persist. Each cycle would allow us to rediscover activities and experiences, deriving joy from them as if they were new. This perpetual rediscovery could sustain our engagement with life, even as our cognitive limits constrain our ability to retain all our experiences.

Sounds Like We are Talking About Reincarnation

Functionally, this existence would mirror reincarnation, with each cycle offering a fresh perspective unburdened by the weight of past memories. The finite nature of our cognitive capacity would necessitate a continuous renewal of our experiences, ensuring that life remains dynamic and engaging along with our immortal bodies.

In conclusion, while physical immortality with a finite brain capacity presents challenges, it also offers a unique form of existence where the joy of discovery and the novelty of experiences can perpetually renew our engagement with life.

The same is true for our finite existence — it is the joy of learning, discovery, and novel experiences that help us age gracefully and ensure a sense of vitality and interest. The challenge, of course, is to balance our desire to thrive with our awareness of mortality, without letting the latter become overwhelming.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

Having the fortitude...

It was eons ago -
(or it seems to be so) -
I was bicycling
through the lanes of Lucknow:
some narrow, some broad,
some brightly lit,
and others, pitch dark.

Then, I neither knew
where I’d be fifty years from then
nor had the fortitude
to even ask.

And today,
here I am,
fifty years later,
just realizing:
it has been a good journey.
It could have been worse,
but thankfully, it was not.

The least I can do
is to have the fortitude now

to thank the universe for that. 

Would Immortality be a Cure for the Existential Crisis?

 

I don’t want to achieve immortality through my work. I want to achieve it through not dying — Woody Allen

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI: Bored

Summary: This blog post delves into the concept of existential crisis, examining how our awareness of mortality shapes our search for meaning. It explores a counterfactual world where immortality might seem like a solution, only to reveal that existential angst could persist in different forms. The discussion highlights the complexities of finding an optimal lifespan that balances health, novelty, and purpose and minimizes existential crisis.

The Existential Crisis

All seems to be going well, or at least it appears so. Mornings come, hours of the day are spent engaged in various activities, and by 10 pm, it’s time for bed again. The cycle repeats over and over. Indeed, it all seems to be going well, and then…

…one afternoon on a brilliant September day, sitting outside a café, enjoying a glass of crisp Sauvignon Blanc and watching people pass by, for a moment, the usual sum of two and two does not add up to four. There is a momentary flutter in the fabric of space and time, a glimpse of us watching ourselves from high above, and a sense of unease that the us below is a complete stranger. Does that stranger have a narrative of where he has been, where he is, or where he is heading? Or is the narrative just an incoherent story of random steps that add up to zero? That, after all, is the hallmark of random walk.

It is only when we take a break from the motions of living, sit back, and try to put the meanderings of our footprints in the sand into a coherent story over a time span longer than merely a day, a month, or even years, that the question of a larger narrative strikes. Those are the moments when the alienation of an existential crisis emerges.

The concept of an existential crisis is deeply rooted in human experience, often arising from the awareness of mortality and the search for meaning of our finite existence. Perhaps it is the price we pay for the gift of consciousness. The luxury of consciousness did not turn out to be a free lunch.

Given that an oft-cited cause of existential crisis is our awareness of mortality, wouldn’t it be interesting to consider a counterfactual world where we were immortal? Would we then be free from the ailment of existential crisis (if I can call it an ailment)? Starting with the role mortality plays in sustaining existential crisis, let us explore that counterfactual world of immortality.

Existential Crisis and Mortality

In mortal life, the finite nature of existence shapes much of human experience. The awareness of death brings several existential concerns to the forefront. The inability to discern a coherent narrative about being born one day and dying later, along with trying to attach meaning to everything we do in between, can be disorienting. This cognitive dissonance leads to significant unease, anxiety, and fear. With a limited lifespan, we frequently wonder and strive to find purpose and meaning in our lives.

The question about the meaning of our existence may lay dormant most of the time, only to awaken when jolted by life transitions — such as the death of a loved one, the realization of our aging and the magnified reality of mortality, or transitioning from a long career into retirement, which can upend many facets of our identity. Such events are rife with the dangers of awakening the sleeping giant of an existential crisis.

The realization of life’s temporariness can lead to feelings of insignificance and dread, prompting philosophical and spiritual explorations. This might involve developing narratives like the notion of an afterlife or a universal connectedness, where our present physical form, although dispersed, continues as part of something else, all in attempts to soothe our unease.

The awareness of life’s finiteness can also inspire a desire to leave a lasting impact or legacy, driving many of us to achieve accomplishments, create, and contribute to society. The cure may also lie in developing a portfolio of engagements that align with what we value.

What would happen if we were immortal? In such a counterfactual world, would we be free from the angst of an existential crisis? Let us imagine life in such a world.

Existential Crisis and Immortality

Imagine living in a world where we are immortal. Without getting entangled in the logistical issues such a world might present, let us focus on what might happen to our feelings of existential angst.

With the fear of death no longer haunting us, the questions about comprehending the grand sum of the meanings of our engagements should no longer exist. It is only within the finite limits of a beginning and an end that questions like “Why am I here?” and “What is the meaning of coming into existence one day and then dying at a later time?” are magnified. These questions are further complicated by the lack of assurance that the self we are aware of will continue to exist in some form beyond our death. With those edgy questions gone, it seems like such a world would be a kiss of death to the existential crisis.

Or would it?

If you were to zoom in and look closely at humans in that world, you might notice a different kind of existential angst etched in the furrows of their brows. The inhabitants of that world might grapple with a sense of eternal boredom. With endless time, the challenge might shift to finding ways to stay engaged and avoid monotony over an infinite lifespan. Without the pressure of a finite life, finding a sustained sense of purpose and motivation could become a different flavor of existential angst.

Over an eternal life, maintaining a coherent sense of self and identity could become challenging. As experiences and memories (particularly the negative ones) accumulate indefinitely, their weight might become burdensome. Observing the humans in that counterfactual world, life does not seem as rosy as we might have imagined.

Is There a Sweet Spot?

It is beginning to sound like there is no escape from the existential crisis, and it may come in different flavors. If we are mortal, there is the struggle to find meaning in finite existence. If we are immortal, the problem may then be overcoming boredom and lethargy, not knowing what to do with infinite time. The desire for novelty and engaging in new activities urges us to get out of bed and look forward to tomorrow. Take that away, and suddenly, an immortal life starts to sound drab. Perhaps there is a sweet spot of longevity between mortal and immortal life where the feeling of existential crisis would reach a minimum.

What could that optimal lifespan be? Perhaps the answer lies in considering several dimensions — the interplay between healthspan and lifespan, the novelty of experiences, the financial well-being. Balancing these dimensions involves trade-offs and personal preferences. In essence, an optimal lifespan may be a multidimensional optimization problem.

Like other aspects of life, the acuity of existential crisis in the context of lifespan may follow a U-shaped curve. If the benefits of sleep, food intake, stress levels, and exercise hours often follow a U-shaped relationship, why not a similar relationship between the length of lifespan and the level of existential crisis?

In summary, an immortal life may not be a cure for the existential crisis that consciousness brings.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

Retirement…

 

…is a rug being pulled
from under the feet,
thrown in the air,
landing with a thud
on a sagging butt.

After the fall,
if no bones are broken,
it’s time to rise—
for an old dog to learn new tricks.
Maybe Pickleball,
so when someone asks,
"Hey, what are you up to?"
you can wag your tail and say,
"I’ve picked up a new
play today."

Living Inside the Gates

“I Grieve for Myself and for the Life I Used to Have” was the caption of a photograph in The New York Times. It accompanied the story of a woman in Gaza who lost her parents in the war and bore a scar on the right side of her face from an explosion. These words spoke of a life shattered beyond recognition.

Amid the chaos and suffering that define much of the world, we find ourselves ensconced in the cocoon of a 55+ community, attempting to insulate ourselves from wars, hunger, poverty, and the harshest cruelties of humanity—all of which persist just beyond the gates of our haven.

Inside, we play pickleball, spending hours practicing or watching YouTube videos to perfect our skills. We invest considerable effort into constructing a world that feels detached not only from external crises but also from the existential realities of our own lives. We strive to shield ourselves from the anguish of mortality and the inevitability of what lies ahead.

Yet, despite our best efforts to sustain this illusion, the occasional wail of an EMS siren shatters the fragile bubble. The flashing lights, the idling engine outside a neighbor’s house just a few doors down, serve as stark reminders of the truths we try to evade.

In the end, no gated community can keep death at bay. When our time draws near, perhaps the greatest blessing would be to leave with a sense of peace, unburdened by the haunting thought: “I grieve for myself and for the life I had” and not be one of millions whose life gets shattered just because of being in the space and time they happen to be.

Your Languorous Steps

 

The joy you find
searching for beach glass;
your eyes lit up
finding something different
than a seafoam green.

While you do that
I sit under the shade
of a beach umbrella
singing in the wind
and watch your silhouette
      against the backdrop
of the turquoise sea.

Occasional gusts of wind
push the flowery skirt
in between your slender legs;
they make you hold the rim
of the panama hat.

Your languorous steps
meander around 
relishing the inner joys
of unhurried days.

Once in a while you take a pause
look back as if to ascertain
that I am still there
and not vanished
in the folds of time.

Life Without Randomness: An Exploration In a Counterfactual World

 

In life, as in a game of poker, the cards are dealt randomly, but how you play them is not random — Unknown

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

Summary: Imagine a world devoid of randomness, where the future holds no uncertainties. Would such a place be monotonous and dull? Without randomness and with a complete understanding of causality, would we have missed the opportunity to build the rich superstructures of religious and philosophical traditions?

I get fooled by a 30% chance for rain

As I walk home during my evening stroll, I nervously eye the ominous dark clouds gathering in the sky. The morning forecast had predicted a 30% chance of rain after 3 pm, but I wasn’t sure how to interpret that number and decide whether to bring an umbrella.

I don’t quite know at what probability threshold to carry an umbrella. Or perhaps, at the risk of looking like an overcautious old fart, I should just carry an umbrella as a mitigation strategy and forget about looking up at the chance of rain all together. That would be a workable strategy to circumvent future outcomes that are probabilistic. This strategy, however, is not always feasible, for you see, carrying an umbrella (if you have one), does not cost anything extra. Bur mitigating strategies and accompanying actions can cost an arm and a leg.

Randomness Is Prevalent

In the afternoon, whether it will rain or not is uncertain because its occurrence depends on numerous local and non-local factors in space and time, making it beyond comprehension. Given infinite resources, by tracking every butterfly’s wing flap and every molecule’s motion, we might narrow down the cone of future uncertainty. But is it worth the time and effort?

Without understanding the causality that takes water molecules from their morning meanderings in the air to coalescing into rain clouds by 4 pm over my head, it’s easier to lump the countless hidden factors shaping the future into a convenient concept called the Randomness.

All would be well if the afternoon rain was the only consequence of randomness, a minor hiccup, but the consequences of randomness do not stop there. Everything about the future is uncertain and, in one way or another, attributable to the complexity of invisible forces shaping outcomes that get lumped into the mysterious dark force of randomness.

Randomness Is Stress

The uncertainty about the future is not a good feeling to have. We are always trying to narrow the cone of uncertainty and wishing that we can have a peek into the future. Would it not be wonderful to know what the stock market was going to be one year from now? Knowing that single number be such a huge advantage for our well-being (of course, only if I am the privileged one and no one else knew about it).

Knowing the future, and thereby, minimizing the consequences of randomness has obvious evolutionary advantage to it. It is no wonder we are wired to favor certainty because is good for the notion of the survival of the fittest. Lack of uncertainty is good for keeping stress at bay.

But let us assume that humanity does get its desire. What would be counterfactual world without randomness be like?

A Counterfactual World Without Randomness

Imagine a world where randomness does not exist, where every event and outcome is predetermined by where you start from and a set of immutable laws that propagate them forward. In this counterfactual world, the future is mostly deterministic, and the concept of chance is nothing more than a relic of our imagination. Would such a world be boring and monochromatic, or would it be a realm of unparalleled clarity and understanding. Would it be enjoyable?

In a deterministic universe, every action and reaction follows a predictable path. The state of the universe at any given moment would be an inevitable result of its previous state, governed by unchanging laws of nature.

The Appeal of Clarity

One of the most compelling aspects of a deterministic world is the clarity it offers. Without randomness, the universe operates like a well-oiled machine, where every cog and wheel has a defined purpose and function. This predictability could lead to a deeper understanding of the natural world, as scientists and philosophers could trace every event back to its origin with precision. The principle of sufficient reason, famously articulated by Leibniz, would reign supreme: everything would have an explanation.

In such a world, the mysteries that currently baffle us — what is the chance we exist today, where are we going, what would be the moment of my death — could be unraveled with certainty. This clarity could foster a sense of security and confidence, knowing that the universe is not subject to the whims of chance. Before closing my eyes and calling it a day, I would know for certain that I will wake up tomorrow.

The Risk of Boredom and Monotony

However, the absence of randomness might also strip the world of its vibrancy. Randomness introduces variability and novelty, making life unpredictable and exciting. Without it, every event would be a foregone conclusion, potentially leading to a sense of monotony. The thrill of discovery, the excitement of the unknown, and the joy of serendipitous moments, the joy of occasionally drenched my summer rain, would be lost.

Moreover, human creativity and innovation often thrive on randomness. The unexpected connections and spontaneous ideas that drive artistic and scientific breakthroughs might be stifled in a deterministic world. The richness of human experience, characterized by its unpredictability and diversity, could be diminished.

So, what would we prefer? A state of clarity or a falling into the risk of boredom and monotony. Or perhaps, there is a sweet spot in between with just the right amount of randomness and uncertainty about the future that will dampen the stressful aspects of uncertainty while keeping the interesting parts.

Optimal Level of Randomness

Could there be just the right amount of randomness to keep the anticipation of future feeling us engaged but not too much to get us stressed. If would be like the notion of right amounts of spice in a dish or the pleasure of enjoying a balanced wine.

The balance between clarity and monotony in a deterministic world would, however, be deeply individualistic. Each person might experience and interpret this balance differently, shaped by their unique preferences, values, and outlook on life.

For some, the predictability and order of a deterministic universe could be a source of comfort and satisfaction. These individuals might find joy in the clarity and certainty that such a world offers, appreciating the ability to understand and anticipate every aspect of their existence. The absence of randomness could provide a sense of control and stability, aligning with their desire for a structured and comprehensible reality.

On the other hand, others might feel constrained by the lack of spontaneity and novelty. For these individuals, the excitement of the unknown and the thrill of unexpected discoveries are essential components of a fulfilling life. The predictability of a deterministic world could seem monotonous and stifling, depriving them of the serendipitous moments and creative sparks that make life vibrant and dynamic.

Ultimately, the perception of a world without randomness would vary from person to person. Some might embrace the clarity and order it brings, while others might yearn for the unpredictability and chaos that add color to their lives. This individualistic balance highlights the diverse ways in which people find meaning and satisfaction in their experiences, underscoring the rich tapestry of human existence.

How do you think you would perceive a deterministic world? Would you lean towards appreciating its clarity or the excitement of randomness?

For me, oh well. I would love to know where the S&P 500 will be a year from now, but I will not mind getting drenched in a summer deluge just because the forecast said 30% chance of rain and I decided not to being the umbrella. So much for wishful thinking though.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

Infinite Resources, Diversity, and Creativity: The Paradox of When Plenty is Little

 

The secrets of evolution are death and time — the deaths of enormous numbers of life forms that were imperfectly adapted to the environment; and time for a long succession of small mutations — Carl Sagan

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

Summary: In a world of infinite resources, there would be no need for competition, and the notion of survival of the fittest would be absent. Consequently, evolution would slow down, leading to a less diverse biosphere. Similarly, if humans were immortal, it could reduce the urgency for innovation, potentially causing societal stagnation.

Resources are Limited

Resources on Earth are limited. Although the Sun provides abundant energy daily and will continue to do so, and this energy has been stored over eons as fossil fuels, the amount of available energy is still finite. This simple constraint has profound implications for evolution.

Biological Evolution in an Infinite Resource Environment

In our world, the finiteness of resources drives the process of natural selection, leading to the mechanism of survival of the fittest. This competition for limited resources has resulted in a diversity of life forms, each adapted to its specific niche.

But what if resources were infinite and there was no need for competition? Can one imagine such a counterfactual world and the evolution of biology in it?

The paradox is that in a world with infinite resources, the driving force behind natural selection would be absent, and the notion of survival of the fittest would be missing. Without the pressure to compete for food, shelter, or mates, organisms would not need to develop specialized adaptations to survive. This could lead to a much less diverse biosphere. Species might evolve more slowly, as there would be no urgency to adapt to changing conditions or to outcompete others for resources. Having plenty might result in stagnation and lack of biological diversity.

Without the need for competition, the concept of “fitness” would be irrelevant. All organisms would have adequate access to resources, leading to a more homogeneous population. Evolution might still occur, driven by random mutations and genetic drift, but the pace and direction of evolution would be vastly different. Organisms that are more efficient and better at conserving their energy would exist alongside those that do not have the necessary traits to do so.

The rich biodiversity of life we see today, with its myriad forms and behaviors, might be replaced by a more uniform, less dynamic, and a less competitive ecosystem.

In another arena of human endeavor where something similar might happen is the fact that our time on this Earth is limited. The fact of our mortality may have shaped our urge and drive for creativity and innovations.

Human Mortality and Creativity

The finite nature of human life has been a significant driver of creativity and innovation. Knowing that our time on Earth is limited, we are motivated to achieve, create, and leave a legacy. Limitation of lime and the pressure to accomplish goals within a finite timeframe spur us to action.

In a counterfactual scenario where humans are immortal and there are no deadlines, the impetus for creativity and innovation might diminish. With infinite time, the urgency to create, discover, and innovate would be greatly reduced. Procrastination could become the norm, as there would always be more time to accomplish tasks. Having plenty of time may result in little.

Human society might become more stagnant, with less frequent innovations and less progress. The drive to solve problems, explore new frontiers, and push the boundaries of knowledge could wane. Art, science, and technology might advance at a much slower pace, as the pressure to innovate would be lessened.

On the other hand, one could argue that immortality could also lead to a deeper exploration of long-term projects and finer pursuits. With no fear of death, humans might undertake endeavors that span centuries, leading to achievements that are currently unimaginable. The focus might shift from short-term gains to long-term sustainability and harmony with the environment. In that counterfactual world we will miss on colorful phrases like “low hanging fruits” or “let us go for some quick wins.”

A difference between the counterfactual world of immortality and counterfactual world of infinite resources is that we have consciousness that gives us a sense of agency that the process of evolution lacks,. Given enough time, we might actually come up with brilliant solutions to social issues that currently plague us. But do not wager on that bet yet.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

I attribute therefore I am

 

I prefer to make up my own quotes and attribute them to very smart people, so that I can use them to win arguments — Albert Einstein

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

Summary: Attribution is a science that seeks to explain an observable phenomenon by something that may be responsible for it. It attempts to do so by dividing the world in two — a world of observable that is being influenced and a world that is the influencer. Attribution gets progressively challenging as the role of probability in shaping the observable increases.

Attribution refers to the process of identifying the factors responsible for an observed phenomenon. Take the example of epidemiology.

In epidemiology, attribution is the process of determining the cause(s) of a health outcome or disease. This involves identifying and quantifying the factors that contribute to the occurrence of a disease or health condition within a population. For example, attributing lung cancer (the observable phenomenon) to smoking (the cause).

In general, a single factor may not be able to explain the totality of the observable. In such cases, the notion of attributable fraction is used to measure the part of the observable phenomenon that can be attributed to various causes.

In another example, the concept of attribution is of significant interest in the context of weather and climate, where it is used to discern the causes of observed climatic variations that include societally and economically devastating extreme events. The approach of attribution in climate science relies on dissecting the totality of the Earth System into an internal component that is being influenced by the external component (the influencer).

For instance, scientists use attribution analysis to assess how much human-induced changes in the atmospheric constituents (e.g., carbon dioxide, ozone etc., treated as an external forcing, the influencer) contribute to the changes in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events like hurricanes, heatwaves, and floods (the phenomenon).

The approach for attribution involves comparing observed data with model simulations that are done with and without the inclusion of human induced changes, thereby isolating the impact of human influence.

The separation of the Earth System between internal and external is arbitrary. One can put variations in Earth’s atmosphere and ocean in the box tagged internal and changes in the atmospheric constituents in the box tagged as external. One can then treat what is in the external box as a known forcing (i.e., not worry about causality of its origin) and attempt to quantify to what extent variations in the internal box are linked to the former.

One can also put Earth’s atmosphere only in the box that is tagged internal and put variations in the ocean and atmospheric constituent in the box tagged external. In this paradigm, the exercise of attribution is an attempt to explain variations in the atmosphere when variations in the ocean and atmospheric constituents both are prescribed.

The boundary between what components in the Earth System get tagged as internal and what get tagged as external is an artificial construct and depends on the question one is posing. The question — What changes in the frequency of climate extremes is due to anthropogenic causes — slices the Earth System into influencer and influencee (which is not a word in in the English lexicon but so what) in one way. Asking the question — what changes in the frequency of climate extremes is due to anthropogenic causes during an El Niño — requires a different strategy for slicing the Earth System.

If you are not a climate scientist, you will think this discussion about climate attribution is not terribly interesting. There are, however, aspects of attribution that transcend the specifics of a single area of interest.

The necessity for the science of attribution stems from the fundamental role of randomness in how the world operates. The future of stocks is uncertain, knowing if it is going to rain two weeks from now starts to resemble flip of a coin. Life is known for throwing curve balls and hence we are advised to “Hope for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.” Without the role of randomness, there would not be a need for the science of attribution.

The very existence of attribution science underscores the significant role of randomness. The greater the effort required to identify causes, the more pronounced the influence of randomness in the system. One could even envision the effort needed to find causality and the role of randomness as complementary variables — similar to Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle — in that their magnitudes are inversely proportional.

On that note would the world not be a boring place if randomness does not have a role in shaping our future? In the absence of randomness and with the ability to understand the causality of it all, we would have missed out constructing superstructures of religious and philosophical traditions. The world would have been a boring monochromatic place.

Humans have an innate desire for certainty and understanding, which stems from our need to predict and control our environment to enhance our success for survival and reproduction. Uncertainty can lead to anxiety, discomfort, and stress, because it challenges our ability to make informed decisions and anticipate future events. This aversion to uncertainty makes the science of attribution particularly attractive and important.

The science of attribution is also synonymous with prediction. If we can attribute an observable phenomenon to an external cause, and if that cause can be anticipated ahead of time, we can predict its consequences. For example, in epidemiology, if we can attribute an outbreak of a disease to a specific pathogen and understand the conditions that lead to its development and spread, and subsequently monitor it, we can predict future outbreaks. This allows public health officials to implement preventive measures, such as vaccinations or quarantine protocols, to mitigate the impact of the disease.

Attribution science also has significant ethical and policy implications. Attributing extreme weather events to climate change can influence public policy, disaster preparedness, societal practices, and international agreements on climate action. It can also affect legal decisions, such as liability for damages caused by climate-related events.

In the grand tapestry of our desire for understanding, attribution serves as the thread that weaves together the intricate patterns of cause and effect, the influencer and the influencee. It attempts to transform the chaos of randomness into a coherent narrative, allowing us to predict, adapt, and thrive. Whether deciphering the mysteries of climate change, unraveling the complexities of disease outbreaks, the science of attribution empowers us to see beyond the surface. It is a testament to our innate curiosity and relentless pursuit of knowledge, bridging the gap between uncertainty and insight. As we continue to refine our tools and expand our understanding, attribution will remain a cornerstone of our quest to make sense of the world and lead us to a better future.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

Understanding the Basics of Natural Selection Through Tetris

 The essence of life is statistical improbability on a colossal scale — Richard Dawkins

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

Summary: The game of Tetris serves as a simplified analogy for understanding the mechanisms of evolution. Tetris and natural selection bear similarities like randomness, selection, and adaptation.

The Evolutionary Game of Tetris

At some point in your life, you may have played Tetris. If not, then you may have watched someone else playing, sitting next to you while waiting for whatever you two were waiting for. Tetris is a game that, on the surface, seems simple: various shapes, known as Tetriminos, fall from the top of the screen, and the player must rotate and position them to create complete lines, which then disappear. However, beneath this simplicity lies an interesting parallel to the process of evolution by natural selection.

Tetris: A Game of Randomness and Fit

Tetris is a game where random shapes are thrown at the player, and only those that fit into the existing structure are useful. Each falling Tetrimino represents a random guess, and the player’s task is to find the best possible fit for it within the current configuration. The goal is to create complete lines, which can be seen as a metaphor for achieving a stable and functional state.

Natural Selection: The Ultimate Game of Fit

Natural selection operates on a similar principle. In nature, random genetic mutations occur within organisms. These mutations are akin to the random Tetriminos in Tetris. Just as in Tetris, where only the pieces that fit well into the existing structure are beneficial, in natural selection, only the genetic variations that enhance an organism’s fitness (in the backdrop of the current state of the environment) are likely to be passed on to future generations. Over time, this process leads to the evolution of species, with traits that are well-suited to their environments becoming more common.

Commonalities Between Tetris and Natural Selection

• Randomness: Both Tetris and natural selection involve an element of randomness. In Tetris, the shapes of Tetriminos are random (although selected from a limited pool). In natural selection, genetic mutations also occur randomly.
• Selection: In both processes, there is a selection mechanism. In Tetris, the player selects the best plays for each shape to fit. In natural selection, the environment “selects” the random mutations that are most advantageous for the survival and reproduction of the organism.

Differences Between Tetris and Natural Selection

• Agency: In Tetris, the player actively makes decisions about where to place each shape. In natural selection, there is no conscious decision-making; the process is driven by the interplay between environmental pressures and random mutations.
• Time Scale: Tetris games are fast-paced, with decisions made in seconds. Natural selection operates over much longer time scales, often spanning generations.
• End Goal: The goal in Tetris is to clear completed lines and achieve a high score. In natural selection, there is no specific end goal; the process is a trajectory of evolution that can go in any direction over time, potentially stopping, bifurcating, or merging.

Conclusion

While Tetris and natural selection operate in vastly different contexts, they share intriguing similarities in their reliance on randomness and selection. Tetris provides a simplified, game-based analogy for the complex and ongoing process of evolution by natural selection.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.

Which gene I lack

 

There is a joy
that you are able to find,
in the simple act of
searching for beach glass.

Walking along the shore
your eyes lit up,
coming across,
something other than
a seafoam green.

Watching you languorously walk
your steps in sync
with breaking waves,
I wonder,
which gene I lack
to miss your pleasures.

Science, Engineering, and Evolution

 

Details may vary (and figuring those out is more of an engineering problem) but some basic, or self-evident facts, lead to inevitable outcomes that shape a vast range of downstream consequences.

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

Summary: Starting with a couple of basic facts, emrgence of the principle of survival of the fittest is inevitable. The various nuances of how survival of the fittest exactly operates, and has resulted in self-replicating molecules evolving to become complex forms like you and me, however, are still being investigated. Survival of the fittest is a fundamental understanding of the workings of nature; the rest (i.e., the exact trajectory of evolution) are practical solutions that the principle of survival of the fittest, operating within the constraints of the environment, finds.

Consider a car. I have a notion of what a car is. At the mention of the word “car,” the image that comes to mind is a metallic box that sits on four wheels. The box has a certain shape; it is longer than it is wider. On two sides of the box, there are doors that can open and close, allowing me to sit behind a steering wheel to get me from here to there.

Beyond the general notions people have about cars, what is under the hood differs from one car to another. Differences also exist in the details of the exterior. The notion of a car could be thought of as the guiding principle (or the science) of a car, while the details represent engineering.

The understanding of the diversity of forms and phenomena of things in the universe works along the same lines. There are some underlying notions that explain a vast majority of general features among individual objects, while specifics for each differ.

This combination of science and engineering works something like the following: The consequences of some simple, self-evident facts result in guiding principles. These guiding principles may, in fact, be inevitable outcomes of a few self-evident facts and interactions among them. Once there, these principles become powerful tools for understanding a wide range of solutions that can emerge. At a granular level, the specifics of solutions differ (like details differ under the hood of a car), but their fundamental workings can be understood by a few guiding principles.

A specific example will help drive this point home.

Limitation of resources is a basic and self-evident fact. The Sun is the provider of energy on the surface of the Earth. Vast as that energy source may be, it is a resource that is still limited and either has to be shared or competed for.

Now let us assume that, for whatever reason, some nascent forms of biology (e.g., self-replicating molecules) were to emerge on the surface of the Earth. Without worrying about the nuances of what the definition of biology may be, a sensible fact to differentiate it from a rock would be that biology has the innate drive to survive and reproduce, a process that requires energy.

When these two self-evident facts are brought together, the inevitable consequence is the emergence of the principle of survival of the fittest. In the quest to survive and reproduce, the traits that facilitate procuring a bigger share of energy get favored and proliferate in future generations, and the nascent forms of biology evolve along a trajectory.

One can argue about the details as to what the definitions of biology may be, or why traits among the members of a class of biological forms have to differ, but given the facts that (a) resources are constrained, and (b) the prime directive of biology is to survive and reproduce (a process that requires energy), the emergence of the principle of survival of the fittest is an inevitability. Once there, then working in the environment it operates it guides the specifics of evolution.

Following the same argument and guided by the principle of survival of the fittest, since biology also needs to be aware of its environment, senses emerge. Senses are the solutions biology has engineered to know the state of the environment. The exact details depend on the environment that biology is in and what solutions the principle of the survival of the fittest can produce.

To seek energy, biology needs to know where plentiful sources of energy are. To do that, it has to know about its surroundings. It just happens that there are various forms of carriers of information — light, sound, molecules — that permeate the environment and encapsulate some details about its state. If a biology comes to possess a means to sense its surroundings, having that capability will make it better at getting a larger share of energy and in its quest for survival and reproduction.

Starting from a couple of self-evident facts and the inevitability of the principle of survival of the fittest that followed, here I am with a collection of senses that are finely tuned to see, hear, smell, taste, and feel the surroundings in which I exist. Beyond serving their primary purpose, with the evolution of consciousness, these senses now let me also appreciate other pleasures in life.

The subtle beauty of the feat of engineering achieved by the principle of the survival of the fittest is that it does not require a conscious or predetermined design. Sensing the environment in which it operates, it tailors the appropriate solutions.

Ciao, and thanks for reading.