Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Will the universe care?

 

Whether I get up tomorrow
or whether I don’t,
will the universe care?

The answer to that question
I do not know.

I will not be around
looking down
      from above
or will be looking
in the rear view mirror
      at the receding road to check
if someone steps to the podium
to read a eulogy.

What I do know
      is that you
who sleeps next to me
in the wee hours of the morning
with a Mona Lisa smile
spread across the lips
while admiring the colors of
blooming Petunias in your dreams,
will.

Saturday, June 1, 2024

Natural Selection and the Stock Market

 

If there are other worlds elsewhere in the universe, I would conjecture they are governed by the same laws of natural selection — Richard Dawkins

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

Three fundamental elements are essential for the emergence of natural selection and evolution: (i) a finite pool of resources, such as energy; (ii) a diverse population capable of replication, ranging from simple self-replicating molecules to complex organisms like humans, with variations in traits within the population affecting resource acquisition efficiency; and (iii) the passage of time.

If one possessed divine powers, simply introducing three core elements would suffice for a complex tapestry of biology on a planet like ours to evolve: limited resources; a replicating population with trait variance; and time. Starting from there, the divine power would sit back and observe the unfolding of evolution.

The relentless pursuit of resources, coupled with the instinct to replicate, would inevitably give rise to increasingly complex and efficient life forms. Over time, this pursuit for efficiency would also catalyze the emergence of consciousness, the development of language for improved communication, and the formation of agrarian societies to support growing resource demands, all aiding in the race to excel over others.

Even at a more fundamental level, the mere presence of finite energy and existence of a primordial chemical mixture sets the stage for the inevitable rise of self-replicating entities, paving the way for the inevitability for the process of natural selection and evolution to occur.

Natural selection, however, extends beyond biological arena. Whenever three specific conditions converge in any domain, the principles of natural selection and evolution will take hold. A contemporary illustration of this is the dynamics of the stock market.

To draw parallels, let us first identify the presence of three essential components in the stock market.

Within the stock market’s framework, the ‘resource’ equates to the discretionary capital held by investors. The ‘population’ consists of diverse companies, each vying for that capital with their unique characteristics (or traits). Time, as always, is plenty.

Similar to biological entities, the primary objective for companies is to ensure their continuity and expansion, which they achieve by securing capital. The biological selection mechanism determining which traits are advantageous is mirrored their effectiveness in drawing investors and their money.

Companies strive to highlight a range of traits to capture investors’ interest and secure funding. These traits include above-average profitability, effective management, promising growth prospects, and investment in innovation to develop new products or enhance existing ones.

It is crucial to understand that the process is self-driven and natural. Individuals have discretionary funds at their disposal, which companies aim to attract. The stock exchange serves as the meeting ground, and that is where the intricate dance of natural selection plays out.

Just as environmental pressures — such as resource scarcity, climatic shifts, the advent of new pathogens, geographical transformations, and alterations in predator-prey relationships — steer the evolution of biological organisms, external factors also influence the evolution of companies. Examples of such changes include the rise of disruptive technologies like Uber, political turmoil that heightens the stock appeal of defense-focused firms, and public sentiment, such as attributing responsibility for climate change to certain corporations. And thus, along the path of evolution, the environmental pressures also evolve and affect which traits will be preferred.

Remarkable parallels exist between the evolutionary processes of organisms and companies, with both driven by the imperative to acquire resources more efficiently, leading to greater complexity with time (I am sure you have heard about complex financial transactions like hedge funds and derivatives). Nonetheless, distinctions between the two also exist.

In the stock market, investors engage in deliberate decision-making (despite the debatable rationality and objectivity of their choices), contrasting with natural selection influencing living organisms, which is an instinctive process shaped entirely by environmental forces.

Another distinction lies in the role of central banks, which actively work to tinker with market conditions and do not let the process of natural selection play out to its full potential. While there may be a natural selection counterpart to this regulatory influence in the present era - human intervention is now a significant factor in the evolution of species - it did not used to be this way.

An additional contrast is the potential for resource (i.e., capital) availability to expand over time for stock markets. 

Despite these differences, there are striking resemblances in the evolution of companies and biological organisms within their respective domains. This is inherently due to the combination of three fundamental elements listed at the beginning, which necessitates such a parallel.

Ciao.

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Hard Work: It is Necessary but not Sufficient for Success in Life

 

Humans make choices — but they are never independent choices. Every choice depends on a lot of biological, social and personal conditions that you cannot determine for yourself. I can choose what to eat, whom to marry and whom to vote for, but these choices are determined in part by my genes, my biochemistry, my gender, my family background, my national culture, etc. — and I didn’t choose which genes or family to have.” — Yuval Noah Harari

Arun Kumar

Arun Kumar + AI

The United States (U.S.) is often referred to as the land of opportunity, where success is believed to be achievable through hard work. It is commonly held notion that hard work is both a necessary as well as a sufficient condition for success in America. This belief implicitly suggests that if one does not achieve success, it is due to a lack of willingness to work hard, or worse, an innate character flaw that makes individuals avoid working hard.

This topic often sparks debate when I converse with two of my ‘successful’ friends, who, like myself, are first-generation immigrants to the U.S. Judging by the quality of our lives in our adopted country, it’s fair to say that we have indeed achieved success, and hard work was a significant factor in where we are. As we approach the end of our careers, we all have comfortable homes and substantial savings to ensure a good retirement.

It is a controversial subject matter between the three of us because I believe in the position that hard work is necessary to be successful, but it is not sufficient. My friends believe that hard work is necessary and also sufficient to be successful.

The notions of “Necessity and sufficiency” are part of formal logic and mathematics but if you try to understand its meaning, the very first sentence (In logic and mathematics, necessity and sufficiency are terms used to describe a conditional or implicational relationship between two statements) will make eyes glaze over and make you mumble ‘whatever.’

In layperson’s language different options of necessary and sufficient (i.e., with one being true while other being and/or not true) in the context of hard work and being successful are:

#1 Necessary and sufficient: “Working hard is necessary and sufficient for being successful,” means you cannot be successful without working hard, and if you work hard, you will definitely be successful.

#2 Necessary but not sufficient: “Working hard is necessary but not sufficient for being successful,” means you cannot be successful without working hard, but just working hard alone will not guarantee success. You might also need other factors like talent, opportunity, luck, etc.

#3 Sufficient but not necessary: Working hard is sufficient but not necessary for being successful,” means if you work hard, you will be successful, but there might be other ways to achieve success as well, like having a unique talent, getting a lucky break, or receiving an inheritance. [Note: For our discussion, this option is same as option #1].

My friends opine that hard work is both necessary and sufficient for success, and inwardly, they are looking at themselves in the mirror as shining examples. What they forget is small events and nudges along their journey that helped them to be what they are today.

Our decision to pursue a Ph.D. program in the U.S. speaks volumes about us. Back in our home countries, we were considered above average. Our family background provided us with the opportunity to attend reputable colleges and receive quality education, which served as a springboard for our journey to the U.S. to further our studies. We had the means to attend college, a commitment that, despite being more affordable in our home countries compared to the U.S., is still a luxury not everyone can afford. Therefore, while hard work played a significant role in our journey, it was not the sole determinant of our success. By sheer luck, the family we were born in had a lot to do with it.

While I prefer not to disclose specifics about my friends, I can share that my journey to a U.S. university for a Ph.D. program involved a mix of hard work and good fortune. Originally, a colleague of mine was slated to travel to the U.S. as part of an exchange program. However, due to health complications, they were unable to seize this opportunity, instead I took their slot. This stroke of luck, coupled with my dedication and effort, has led me to where I am today. I know that my friends have experienced similar fortuitous circumstances on their paths as well.

However, prior to the fortunate events that shaped our life’s journey, it was the circumstance of our birth that initially set the stage.

There is a proverb that compares the conditions of our birth to the luck of winning a lottery. This metaphor encapsulates the idea that the circumstances of one’s birth, including geographic location, socioeconomic status, and family structure, can profoundly impact one’s life opportunities and outcomes. The lottery analogy underscores the randomness of birth; our time and place of birth are determined purely by chance, not by any actions or decisions on our part. This viewpoint emphasizes the influence of luck and circumstance in our lives from the outset. It serves as a potent reminder of the numerous uncontrollable factors that can shape our life paths.

I was born into a middle-class family in a country that, while it had its share of corrupt politicians and social issues (which persist to this day), was not plagued by wars or genocide. Issues like corruption, while significant, did not cripple our society. I was fortunate to have a stable family and the opportunity to attend a reputable school and college. From the outset, the odds were in my favor.

The circumstances of our birth are the initial state from which our life trajectory develops, and these starting conditions bear considerable influence.

Certainly, there are always exceptions to the rule. Figures such as Nelson Mandela, frequently dubbed ‘black swans,’ rise from the most daunting situations conceivable. Through determination and tenacity, they break through barriers. Nonetheless, these cases are outliers and do not set norms for the majority of us.

There is often a tendency among successful individuals to downplay the role of luck and unique opportunities in their journey, holding divergent perspectives and losing sight of their roots. This mindset is also prevalent among the current generation of Republicans. They tend to believe that if someone has not managed to extricate themselves from their predicament, it is due to a lack of effort on their part.

The crux of the matter is that success in life necessitates challenging work. While hard work enhances the probability of success, it doesn’t assure it. This is akin to maintaining a healthy diet and regular exercise regimen, which can potentially extend one’s health span. However, there is no guarantee that the desired outcomes will be achieved.

I wonder if there is any action in the present that is both essential and adequate to ensure the certainty of future outcomes. Suddenly, all that one is working towards and is on the verge of achieving can be thrown off course. An ordinary medical check-up can abruptly flip our lives, turning a blissful existence into a nightmare.

Thus, the three of us continue to engage in lively debates over the matter, while maintaining amicable relations, which is the most important aspect of having friends.

Ciao.

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Where should I head next?

 

In the mind's eye
there hovers a vision of Clint Eastwood
riding into golden sunset
after he cleaned the town
of dirty old rats,
victorious, and yet,
looking a little forlorn,
lost, and a bit sad.

His gaze wanders
first to the east, and then,
to the west;
the lines on his face
seem to ask
now this job is done
where should I head next?