The ubiquitous Bell Curve

 

Insurance payouts rely on actuarial tables using the bell curve to predict claims and set premiums.

Arun Kumar

AI Generated Image

The Bell Curve: Its prevalence in natural and social phenomena often leads to its perception as a fundamental law. At its core, the bell curve is a statistical (as opposed to a physical) concept where the distribution of a characteristic in a population is symmetrically arranged around a central value. As the characteristic’s value deviates from this central value, fewer individuals in the population are likely to exhibit it. This distribution, when plotted with the characteristic value on one axis and the number of individuals on the other, takes on the shape of a bell.

Consider the scenario where we measure the heights (characteristics) of all adults (population) in a town. Most adults will have heights around the average (say, 5.5 feet) (central value), forming the peak of the distribution of height vs. number of people with that height. As the heights deviate from this average, the number of people with those heights decreases, creating a bell-like shape. Thus, fewer people are found at the extremes of very short or very tall.

There are countless enigmatic forces that result in the bell curve distribution of characteristics in natural and social phenomena. We may not fully understand why the characteristics of living beings follow a bell curve, but the fact they do necessitates that we grapple with its implications.

Small initial differences, amplified by positive feedback, can lead to a broadening of the bell curve, indicating increased variance or disparities over time. In the context of wealth distribution, minor initial differences in financial resources can, over time, result in significant wealth inequalities. This is exemplified by the fact that the wealthiest 1% possess nearly twice as much wealth as the remainder of the world combined. Indeed, the bell curve is at the heart of stark disparities.

To get a feel how the bell curve can broaden, consider wealth as an example. Imagine a population where, initially, everyone possesses the same amount of wealth. However, individual characteristics, which are inherently diverse, influence how individuals manage this wealth. Some individuals, being frugal, might save their wealth for future needs. Others, with a forward-thinking mindset, might invest their share. Yet others, driven by hedonism, might squander their wealth on immediate pleasures. Over time, these differing characteristics lead to small disparities in wealth, which eventually grow to become significant wealth inequalities as time passes.

The ubiquitousness of the bell curve, and its inevitable broadening over time, underscores the basic reason that disparities plague our society and are in constant need to be managed.

Given the ubiquity of the bell curve, it’s impossible to find societies where all individuals share identical characteristics. This is a fundamental trait of all groups, whether they’re human or composed of other animal species. One notable distinction is that in animals, physical variations are more consequential, whereas in humans living in the current era, psychological differences tend to have broader implications.

Indeed, the development of social norms and policies like taxation are attempts to manage the implications of the bell curve. These measures aim to mitigate the extremes and reduce disparities, particularly in wealth distribution.

Political ideologies often differ in their approach to how to manage the consequences of the bell curve. Democrats, for instance, generally advocate for policies that aim to flatten the bell curve, promoting a sense of equality. Republicans, on the other hand, often favor a laissez-faire approach, allowing natural forces to shape the distribution. If this results in a broadening of the bell curve, they view it as a natural outcome.

Indeed, the bell curve is a prevalent concept that significantly influences various aspects of our lives and society. The development and enforcement of societal norms are efforts to counteract its implications, as evidenced by historical fluctuations between periods of inequality and attempts at equalization. It could be argued that history is a narrative of societies wrestling with the effects of this omnipresent statistical phenomenon. However, it is important to remember that while the bell curve can offer insights, it cannot not mend its own consequences. It is us who possess the power to guide our societies and adhere to norms that foster fairness and equality. By doing so, we can counteract the consequences of the bell curve.

Ciao.

What Next?

 

Life is pleasant. Death is peaceful. It's the transition that's troublesome – Issac Asimov

Arun Kumar

    Arun Kumar + AI

The morning air was shrouded in mist. Slender wisps of vapor rose from the dew-laden grass, resembling serpents performing an aerial ballet. A subtle chill persisted, prompting one to wrap their arms around their chest for warmth. The sun, a dimmed orange orb, struggled to shine through the shifting fog.

Against the hush of this ethereal scene, Natalie—the weaver of fantastical dreams and a seasoned event organizer—emerged out of her vehicle and proceeded into the venue hall where the wedding celebration had extended into the late hours of night and guests had recently departed. The venue hall was vacant, and debris lay strewn across the floor. The place appeared desolate. The scene captured the enigma of the passage of time; a present transformed into the past. The scene conveyed the nostalgia of time’s flow and the poignancy of endings.

The event Natalie orchestrated was a triumph, carried out flawlessly. With this achievement now in the past, Natalie felt an emptiness within. From the quietude, a whispered inquiry emerged: What next

It was the same question that appeared to echo in Clint Eastwood’s thoughts as he departed from the town gate, leaving behind the locale leaving behind the locale he had cleansed of its unsavory elements.

It was the question that preoccupied the townspeople as they surveyed the ravaged landscape in the morning, following days of a devastating storm that had leveled the town, and at last, the sky was clear and blue once more.

It was a question that Michael asked himself at the conclusion of the retirement send-off, after the unwrapping of presents and as colleagues, one by one, retreated to their cubicles. What next?

And holding the clock that was one of the send-off presents, he cried.

Falling in and out of a trance: A tale of (almost) buying a home

 

It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong — Thomas Sowell

Arun Kumar

AI Generated Image

Yesterday, I experienced a transition from a trance-like state to a moment of sudden awakening and realization. It felt as if I was on auto-pilot, guided by a force beyond my conscious control, similar to being in a hypnotic or religious trance. Then, something snapped me out of it.

In this trance-like state, I behaved out of character, performing actions that were not typical of me. This state could be likened to a form of dissociation, where I felt detached from my actions. It was as if I was observing my actions from an outsider’s perspective, aware that the actor was me, but his actions were beyond my control.

Then, the dream shattered, and there was a sudden shift. I “woke up” and was abruptly thrust back into reality, confronting the world with a sense of surprise and confusion. This return was a jarring reconnection with reality, a stark contrast to the trance-like state I had been in.

The feeling that follows a sudden transition from a state of two disconnected selves to a state where they coalesce is strange. The process brings a feeling of disorientation like waking up in an unfamiliar place, unsure of where you are.

This state of trance was not induced by intense focus or deep meditation. It occurred during a scouting trip to the low country of South Carolina in search of potential retirement locations.

The trip involved visiting retirement communities to get a feel of what they are like and see what home models they had to offer. However, during our explorations, the mindset subtly shifted from merely looking around to considering it perfectly acceptable to spend $500K on a second home and then deal with the logistics of managing two homesteads separated by five hundred miles.

Two factors precipitated this transition.

When visiting a retirement community where new homes are still being built, the first stop is the model homes. These homes are showcased to attract you like a bee to a fragrant flower. The model homes appear far superior to the homes we ordinary mortals live in. The idea of living in them feels like a quantum leap in the standard of living, akin to moving to an imaginary life in heaven. Your eyes glaze over, and your mind is transported into a trance where reason has no place.

The other factor relates to the real estate broker accompanying you, who earns money only when a home is bought or sold. Given this, it is in their best interest to make you buy a home with the least amount of their time invested. While you are already slipping into a trance-like state, they are adept at applying subtle psychological tactics to nudge you further over the precipice of rationality. They do this by hinting that if you do not buy the home in the next few days, the price will skyrocket.

Another trick they employ is to make you feel that if you miss a particular house that you demonstrated a little admiration for will not come along. They play on your fear of missing out (FOMO).

The agent may highlight the uniqueness of a home, its features, location, or price to create a sense of scarcity. They might suggest that such opportunities are rare and if missed, similar options may be hard to come by anytime soon. Their strategy is designed to create a sense of urgency among the entranced, pushing them to decide quickly. The sense of urgency, combined with the trance-like state you are already in, makes you susceptible to signing a contract before what was supposed to be just a scouting trip is over, unless…

…unless something snaps you out of the trance and you blink with a sudden realization of the uncharacteristic folly you were about to commit. All I needed was to get out of the setting, disassociate with the real estate broker, who is part hypnotist, part manipulator, and have a cup of coffee at Starbucks sitting on their patio and feel the breeze in my face. In that simple act the trance broke and in a moment of clarity, I realized the importance of stepping back to remind myself why I was here and not getting into the logistical challenge of buying a second home.

Without carrying any regrets, tomorrow I will be heading back home. The place has a potential to settle down after retirement, however, buying a home can wait for another day.

Ciao.

If you get caught in the web of rhymes

 

Once the mind gets entrapped
in the Siren’s song of rhymes
makes writing a poem, a veritable crime
when pen wants words
to go down
they simply insist
it is time for them
to go for a climb.

What to do
when this misfortune befalls,
stop writing,
let the hand stall?

Here is a suggested remedy
that one might try
take a break, go for a walk
and look at the blue
shimmering sky.

Do anything
but pull on your hair,
or use cold shower
and hope to break away
from Siren’s lair.

For it is impossible to fit
a square peg
into a round hole
the best one can do
is to go out
and take a slow stroll.