It is short sightedness in us that lets people elect leaders like Trump into positions of power, and thereby, immediately increase the probability of our extinction.
Arun Kumar
AI Created Image
The future is all about probabilities. In some cases, it may be a heavily loaded dice and it is easy to fall in the perception of certainty. Psychologically, it helps to perceive the future as deterministic. I get on the plane at Dulles International Airport on the way to Geneva, and while boarding, there is never a thought that there is non-zero probability that the flight may never get there. In my mind, I am already visualizing checking into the hotel, taking a shower, and weather permitting, heading out to take a walk along Lake Geneva.
In my mind’s eye, that vision all feels so natural.
A good thing about the probabilities associated with future alternatives is that our actions in the present can change the probabilities of possible outcomes. Eating healthy foods and exercising does not completely eliminate chances of getting hit by some catastrophic ailment in the future but it does tilt the odds against that it may happen. A good example is to quit smoking and the influence it has on reducing the probability of getting lung cancer. But then, I have also been told that the longest living person on the planet was a smoker. That instance, even if true, does not negate the role of probability in the working of the universe.
But don’t let this factoid make you think that it could also be you or that you are invincible and reach for another cigarette. Odds are much higher that you would come to regret it later.
If the future is associated with probabilities, what is the probability of human extinction? While we are at it, it would also be good to think about how my (and our) actions in the present affect the probability of human extinction. Let us not for a moment be lulled by the notion that it is an impossible outcome. The history of evolution is rife with examples of species that have gone extinct, some because of evolutionary pressures while others because of catastrophic events, like the impact of a celestial object burning up in the atmosphere.
The probability of our extinction depends on how many ways the Earth can become an inhospitable place for us to live. Some of the ways things can go wrong are beyond our control — a super volcano shrouding Earth in a blanket of darkness, or the trajectory of a primordial black hole intersecting with the trajectory of Earth.
Then there are ways that are within our control and our (collective) behavior in the present has the power to alter the probability of our extinction. The unfortunate fact is that some of the factors that could lead to the self-extinction of human civilization are of our own creation.
While incredible advances in science and technology have raised the lot of humanity, they have also created novel pathways that could lead to human extinction — nuclear weapons and the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD), climate change, some scientist tinkering with the genes of viruses. Among a plethora of possibilities, them climate change holds a unique place in that it is driven by our ever-growing need for energy.
To fight against the ravages of entropy, our body needs external sources of energy (calories). Other technological advances catering to human convenience, desires for a better life etc. also require energy in addition to what is needed to simply sustain us. In fact, the former is now much bigger than the latter.
Until we do find cleaner sources of energy, we have to rely on fossil fuels, a consequence of which is changes in the atmospheric composition and increase in CO2 and other gases that are changing climate patterns to which our social and agricultural norms adapted to. Indications are that changes in Earth’s climate and its consequences (e.g., rising temperature, changes in extremes events, melt of sea ice in polar caps and sea level rise) are predicted to create social and ecological havoc, unless…
…unless we decrease our energy consumption from fossil fuels.
Perhaps one day new innovations will lead to cleaner sources of energy (e.g., fusion) and issues we have created will find solutions, but until then, an effort is needed to reduce our energy consumption and try to increase reliance on cleaner sources of energy that are already available to us.
Individually we can do something, and indeed we do but is that going to be effective? The idealist among us would say it does, that the ocean is made of individual drops, that efforts by individuals can turn the tide, but they are just feeling good about cliches and in reality not going to make a dent in the issues that we are now facing. Instead…
…what we are going to need to enhance the probability of our continued survival as a species is a collective action, and importantly, a collective transformation in psychological traits that helped us survive and reproduce (for example, psychological traits like urge to dominate, kinship bias, preference to discount the future etc.). Is there any chance that could happen?
In the end, the increasing the probability of human civilization will come down to assessing the probability of collective evolution of humanity in shaking off psychological traits that are deeply embedded in our psyche.
One of the primary psychological traits that is likely to be our downfall is discounting the future (i.e., our tendency to prefer immediate rewards over taking a long-term view). The propensity of humans and animals to discount future returns for short-term benefits has a logic to it. This trait likely evolved because it was beneficial in environments where the future was uncertain and immediate rewards were critical for survival.
The bottom line is that how we act today is continually altering the probability of our eventual survival. That combined with our tendency to discount the future is a recipe for sharply increasing the probability of our extinction.
Perhaps, we will become extinct (or slide back to dark ages) is not an impossibility but an evolutionary imperative. Perhaps it happens to all civilizations that may have come into existence in various parts of the universe but went extinct and is the reason we have not been visited by aliens.
Ciao.
